I think that an absentee ballot dropped off directly has a better chance of being counted than if you add another hop through the Post Office. That has always been the case, but it's even more true this year.

The problem with absentee ballots is that there are so many steps, and an error at any step can lead to your ballot being disqualified. That online tracker is a key piece of making this work, and hasn't gotten enough publicity IMHO. I found it and checked on Richard's mail-in ballot. I was pleasantly surprised at how well that worked - quick and easy.

The best approach is to get your ballot in as early as possible and keep checking the tracker until you have confirmation it has been counted.