I think the most useful exercise is starting with a scenario and modifying one factor at a time to see how much difference it makes if everybody is masked, how long the exposure is, etc. You could perhaps simulate an international flight by assuming everybody on the plane is vaccinated?
They do not include the effect of weekly testing, but I'm not sure they should. Just because someone has been tested in the past week doesn't mean they aren't infected right now. Personally I think that's in the neighborhood of hygiene theater. But I'll bet they'll add it if someone finds a way to do a study that quantifies the effect of weekly testing.
And since you seem to be agreeing with me about the NY Times article, just let me point out that I calculated the chances for an UNVACCINATED person being infected on any given day and guess what? It was about 2.5 in 5000. So I guess COVID just isn't very dangerous at all, right? I think he just proved the opposite of what he was trying to prove. What a nimrod.
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branchandroot
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Date: 2021-09-20 11:04 pm (UTC)They do not include the effect of weekly testing, but I'm not sure they should. Just because someone has been tested in the past week doesn't mean they aren't infected right now. Personally I think that's in the neighborhood of hygiene theater. But I'll bet they'll add it if someone finds a way to do a study that quantifies the effect of weekly testing.
And since you seem to be agreeing with me about the NY Times article, just let me point out that I calculated the chances for an UNVACCINATED person being infected on any given day and guess what? It was about 2.5 in 5000. So I guess COVID just isn't very dangerous at all, right? I think he just proved the opposite of what he was trying to prove. What a nimrod.