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For some time now I have been convinced that populations are reaching herd immunity for COVID-19 much quicker than most people have been predicting. I formed that hypothesis initially based on what we all saw happen in Wuhan, Tuscany and New York City. As more news has come rolling in this has been looking more and more likely to me. I've found a number of articles by reputable scientists supporting this hypothesis. Most of those have been based on elaborate mathematical models and explanations involving "heterogeneity" and Chaos Theory, like this one.
Here's a new one based on simple observation. The virus strikes a region (the Brazilian Amazon) that is desperately unprepared to deal with it, escalates to a screaming peak of body horror with people dying in the streets, and then burns out within a matter of weeks. What makes this one a little different is that the level of societal collapse makes it impossible to believe that the virus was "brought under control" by lockdowns, social distancing or medical interventions. It just flamed out.
It's hard to pull the estimate of what percentage of the population was infected out of this report but it seems to match the broad range predicted by the mathematical models referenced later in the article.
The percentage I'm leaning towards (based mostly on state by state data from the US) is 25%. That's actual infections, not the number confirmed by testing (so about 10 times the number of confirmed cases). I believe that New York City, Miami, Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans and probably several other US cities have hit that percentage and are over the hump. I hope so, because it looks like poor, tragic New Orleans is about to get clobbered by another hurricane or two. If I'm right, they'll come out the other side of that without a big spike in COVID cases. Fingers crossed.
Here's a new one based on simple observation. The virus strikes a region (the Brazilian Amazon) that is desperately unprepared to deal with it, escalates to a screaming peak of body horror with people dying in the streets, and then burns out within a matter of weeks. What makes this one a little different is that the level of societal collapse makes it impossible to believe that the virus was "brought under control" by lockdowns, social distancing or medical interventions. It just flamed out.
It's hard to pull the estimate of what percentage of the population was infected out of this report but it seems to match the broad range predicted by the mathematical models referenced later in the article.
The percentage I'm leaning towards (based mostly on state by state data from the US) is 25%. That's actual infections, not the number confirmed by testing (so about 10 times the number of confirmed cases). I believe that New York City, Miami, Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans and probably several other US cities have hit that percentage and are over the hump. I hope so, because it looks like poor, tragic New Orleans is about to get clobbered by another hurricane or two. If I'm right, they'll come out the other side of that without a big spike in COVID cases. Fingers crossed.
