Am I the only one worrying about the new coronavirus?

[dreamshark]

I admit it, my first reaction was along the same lines as everybody else I know. Oh, it's that SARS thing again. Wait, whatever happened to SARS anyway? It just kind of disappeared after a while, right? Never did spread much beyond China. Too bad about the deaths in China, but *shrug*  not something I need to worry about. And, hey, a 2% fatality rate isn't really that high, right? 

But I can't help following medical news obsessively, and I'm beginning to realize that this is much worse than SARS. The fatality rate is lower (SARS was an alarming 5-10%) but it is FAR more contagious. It's following a pattern much more reminiscent of the 1918 Spanish Flu (which had a mortality rate of only 2-5% but spread like wildfire and killed more people worldwide than World War I).

Usually, when a new disease is identified the initial fatality rate estimate is way too high because it's based solely on people who were sick enough to seek medical care. Once we get better at identifying cases, the mortality rate usually starts dropping. For the first few weeks the rate held steady at 2% even as the total number of cases exploded, but I really expected it to head down to about 1%. But no. Now the rate is inching UP instead of down. The most recent numbers I've seen were about 75,000 cases confirmed (worldwide) with about 2,000 deaths. Do the math. The reported fatality rate is RISING, even as more sub-clinical cases are identified. That is Not Good.

Worst of all, there is growing evidence that people who are completely asymptomatic can spread the virus. That's not 100% clear, but there doesn't seem to be any doubt that people with symptoms no more concerning than a common cold can spread the disease. And the initial guess of a 2-week incubation period seems to be about right (and that's a long incubation period). The epidemiologists' nightmare is a highly contagious disease with a long incubation period that is contagious during the incubation period. That might be what we have here.

Remember those 400 Americans who were evacuated from the Diamond Princess plague ship? The ones that were sick were sent to hospitals in Japan, so supposedly the only evacuees being repatriated were healthy. But it turns out that 14 of those 400 actually had the virus (but no symptoms). They had all been tested, of course, but the results didn't come back until they were loading them into the planes. So they sealed off these potential carriers with plastic in the rear of the planes, hoping that would keep them from infecting any of the healthy people in the front. Did that work? I don't know. I think all those unfortunate folks are still in quarantine, so it's too soon to be sure. 

Latest news of the day - a surprise explosion of cases in northern Italy. Nobody seems to know the source of infection - a single individual? Health officials seem to think so, as they are reportedly desperately searching for Patient Zero. If one infected person in a public space can lead to 170 cases in 3 days, we're in trouble, folks.

Comments

[redbird]

I am somewhat worried, but it's something that I don't really see much I should, or can, do right now. Well, lunch in Chinatown tomorrow, but that's anti-unreasonable fear, rather than anything that will keep me or others safe. And on some level this is one more scary thing I am powerless against, and I think I used up my emotional reaction on climate change, Trump, and Brexit.

Don't Panic?

[bibliofile]

No, I'm not actually worried yet. I think it's too soon for consistently good data, for various reasons.

Also, we're still in a strong flu season in the US, which is of more danger to more people in the US right now. More deadly, too, says the current data. (Of course, that could change.)

Re: Don't Panic?

[dreamshark]

What do you mean by deadly? Influenza has a fatality rate of about 0.1%. It kills a lot of people only because a lot of people catch it.

Of course pretty much any disease is of more danger to people in the US than COVID-19 right now. There have been 14 cases diagnosed and (unsurprisingly) no deaths. So, what, a 1 in 20 million chance of even catching the virus? Not much of a threat.

But the same was true of Italy four days ago.

I'm not exactly huddled under my desk breathing through a paper mask here, just keeping a wary eye on the news.

Re: Don't Panic?

[bibliofile]

Deadly as in "we are more likely to die from" the flu than the coronavirus Covid-19.

As for the mortality rate of the coronavirus, it's too early to have good data -- and that's without taking into account the tendency of China's government to want the situation to appear better than it is.

You and I already know people who have had the flu this winter. I know, thirdhand at best, only a couple of people who have had a nonzero chance of being exposed to the coronavirus -- i.e., they were in mainland China in December or January.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/01/29/800813299/worried-about-catching-the-new-coronavirus-in-the-u-s-flu-is-a-bigger-threat

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-10000-across-us-as-world-frets-over-coronavirus.html

Re: Don't Panic?

[dreamshark]

No argument with any of that. Just saying that things can change very quickly, and are doing so as we speak. And that from what I have read, this particular virus has some extremely worrisome characteristics.

[pameladean]

I'm quite worried, but there's not much I can do about it other than, perhaps, stocking up on dry and canned goods in case the viruis arrives in force and people are told to stay home.

I don't have a link handy, but I was both amused and reassured when the Minnesota Department of Health, maybe a week or two ago, issued a series of guidelines basically saying what they'd tell people to do if the virus actually arrived. They did not explicitly say either "We got you" or "We know the Trump administration has gotten rid of a lot of the experts who could handle things at the federal level, but in Minnesota, we definitely know what we're doing," but there was some strong subtext.

P.

[redbird]

The Massachusetts Department of Public Health is basically saying "don't panic, wash your hands, don't wear a mask."

[minnehaha]

"Wash your hands" is excellent advice. The person I know who gets the most sick year after year is also terrible at it.

K.

[dreamshark]

In general, good advice. But in this particular case, probably won't help a lot, as the spread seems to be explosively airborne. Yes, airborne particles can land on surfaces, but if that's what you're worried about you need to carry around antiseptic wipes and wipe down doorknobs and toilet handles. Doesn't really do that much good to scrub your hands in the bathroom and then reinfect your hands again on the way out of the bathroom.

I haven't seen this mentioned much, but wouldn't "don't shake hands" seem like a more important precaution? Seems like a more polite option than rushing into the bathroom to scrub up after every handshake.

[pameladean]

I've seen the advice against masks in quite a few places, but have yet to track down the reason for it. I'm relieved by it since I haven't done anything to get a mask or masks and find any kind of face covering very annoying and productive of anxiety.

P.

[dreamshark]

I'm pretty sure that I saw one comment by an actual expert (CDC site or similar) saying that the masks showed some effectiveness at stopping infected people from spreading the virus but had little effect on whether or not you got infected. I don't know exactly why that would be, since it seems like the same thing is being filtered in each direction. And I'm not sure it's true - just something I read somewhere.

I think it's most likely that Health Authorities are advising AGAINST masks because they don't want to contribute to mass panic. It might be unnecessary, but how could it be bad for you? Without an accompanying explanation, I just blow off "advice" like that as an officious attempt by authorities to sound like they know what they are talking about. It annoys me that they are spewing advice with no clear justification, though.

I see absolutely no reason for people in the US to be wearing masks in public at this point, and am not trying to whip up mass panic. It would, however, be nice to know at some point whether masks are helpful or not, or just the health equivalent of Security Theater.

[redbird]

I suspect it's some combination of the masks being useful mostly to prevent the wearer from infecting others, rather than protecting the wearer; wearing them can be uncomfortable; and the supply of masks is finite, so don't use them up when we don't need them.

[davidwilford]

Erin and I were in the early stages of planning a cruise with her siblings, but I have no desire to be stuck on board on a plague ship.

[carbonel]

My mother was aboard a cruise ship that landed at Singapore. There were no cases of COVID-19 aboard the ship, but she traveled through the city to the airport, and spent many hours on a plane with people who may or may not have been carrying the virus.

So she decided to stay home for the recommended two weeks, ending this Friday. I think she was inspired by the existence of her new great-grandson. If she doesn't want to visit him with a possible (though minuscule) chance of exposure, she doesn't want to do it to anyone else, either. She's bored but holding up well, and has watched a lot of television.

[dreamshark]

I'm glad she's doing well and taking some precautions. I have been thinking about her. Considering the current state of the pandemic, her chances of being infected were very small, but obviously not zero. And frankly, the growing evidence for asymptomatic infection would be enough to keep me in self-quarantine in her position. Who wants to be Typhoid Mary?

As far as new babies go, babies and children seem to be oddly unaffected by this particular virus. Not that I'd recommend exposing them, of course, but for babies, flu (or even a cold) is probably much more of a threat. I actually got a flu shot this year for the first time ever before visiting my new preemie grandsons. I didn't get flu, but then, I never do. Just being extra careful for the babies.

Almost everybody in the house DID get a cold, which made us all very nervous, as the babies had just come home from the hospital and still weighed under 6 pounds each. This was over Thanksgiving/Christmas, with a total of a total of 7 people (not counting babies) passing through the household. Our protocol was that whoever was in the first 3 days of their cold wasn't allowed to hold the babies, and everybody used hand wipes before touching them whether they thought they were sick or not. I put a big container of Lysol Antibacterial Wipes in the bathroom and every time I used the bathroom I wiped down the sink, counter, toilet handle, light switches and doorknobs.

The babies did not get the cold. Neither did Amber (who has Teacher Super-Immunity Powers). All the rest of us did, clearly passing it from one to another despite all these precautions. I'm not sure exactly what lesson to take from that, frankly.

[quadong]

I am not panicking and don't recommend panic. However, it seems very likely that we will have COVID-19 in the States sooner or later, and probably before there's a vaccine. I am planning to make sure we have 3+ days worth of dry/canned food stored up so we're ready to not leave the house if that seems like a good idea. That's not insane survivalist stuff, and is probably a good idea to do whether or not there's a potential pandemic. I mean, a nearby tornado could lead to wanting such stores, too, for instance. (Not in February, but in general, I mean.) Or, even more likely, we could all get sick from something unrelated and not want to go shopping.

Actually, we probably have 3+ days of food stored already, but the variety after the first few days would be pretty bad (mac and cheese again?!).