MN COVID numbers

[dreamshark]

An unusually interesting daily report as some trends coalesce into what looks like a pattern. 

As you probably know unless you have had your head under a rock, both infection and hospitalization rates in Minnesota have been headed inexorably upward for the about the past month. Both new infections and number currently hospitalized peaked over Memorial Day weekend, trended downward quite consistently until June 20, then started back up again. On July 26, the new infection rate was back to EXACTLY where it had been 2 months previous at the top of the first peak (about 700/day). We've been on that plateau for the past week. Hospitalizations have followed a similar double peak trend, but the 2nd peak is way lower than the first one.  

Additional data that helps make sense out of those trends.

1. June 10. Bars and restaurants reopen. 10 days later we see infection rates starting up towards the 2nd peak. 
2. The demographics have changed radically in the second wave. Now the vast majority of new cases are in people under 40. This is probably why the hospitalization rates are growing so much more slowly than they did in the first wave, and death rates have bottomed out.
3. In the first wave, the majority of infections were in the Twin Cities metro area, particularly Hennepin/Ramsey. Now new cases are growing fastest outstate. By a LOT. In the "Where new cases are growing fastest" table, Hennepin and Ramsey county no longer even appear in the top 10. Hell, they're not even in the TOP TWENTY. So... maybe it's not so much a resurgence as a widening of the playing field to include more of the state? 

It doesn't look great, but maybe not all that terrible either. I'm still not clear on exactly what we are trying to accomplish at this point, from a public health viewpoint.  If it's "Keep new infections to the lowest possible level on a day to day basis," Minnesota is failing (and will continue to fail until we close the bars and meat packing plants. This is so obvious that I can only assume that this is not the goal). If it's "flatten the curve so we don't overrun our hospitals" I think we are still right on target. 

Florida, on the other hand, is clearly going for a northern Italy approach - maximize the death rate, flame out in a couple of months, shovel the bodies out of the way, and get the tourist industry back on track. And they are right on target for that. 

Comments

[maruad]

I think a lot of places are aiming for the flatten the curve model. Keep the economy running to reduce the government spending while keeping hospitals open but not over burdened. The crash and burn states... well, what can I say.

[spiderplanet]

I did not like the casual attitude of rural/tourist Minnesota, and I'm SHOCKED I TELL YOU to know that their attitude translated to a higher infection and death rate.

[dreamshark]

It's hard to say how much of it is attitude and how much is just the way the numbers work as an epidemic churns along. Outstate is (or was until recently) a virgin population, so as the virus rolls into each small town it burns fast and hot. As the most susceptible segment of the population is infected, new infections start to slow down just from lack of opportunity.

Of course the early infection spike is helped considerably when the fresh meat decides to hold a defiantly unsafe rodeo, just because. In the end I'm not sure it matters. I think that ultimately 25-35% of the population will be infected in the first wave. We can get there fast and out of control, or flatten the curve and get there slow. But I doubt there is any way to stop it.

[spiderplanet]

Tourism is the principal cause of spread for this virus from the beginning. They may have been a virgin population, but they welcomed likely carriers with open arms and uncovered faces.