You may not have noticed, but....

[dreamshark]

The coronavirus pandemic peaked in the US 2-3 weeks ago. 

"For some reason, the serious mainstream press has been curiously reluctant to admit this. Pretty much every article about  the status of the pandemic starts with something like, "The US passed another grim milestone today..." or "Drop in new coronavirus cases in U.S. is muddied by reporting and testing snags"  Or sometimes the good news is blurted out quickly and then followed by stern warnings that cases are "spiking" in someplace like Maine or Vermont (where "spike" means they reported 38 new cases in the last week). 

That's why I like this NY TImes article, It just reports the numbers and graphs without inane editorializing. It's not just a few big states with dubious statistical practices. The majority of states are reporting arrival rates that are either clearly declining or plateaued (like Minnesota). And no, it is not just because we are doing less testing (which we are, because we suck). If that were the case, the positivity rate would be rising as testing declines. But it's not... it's falling. 

Any guesses why this is not being reported clearly? Have I misunderstood the data?  Because it sure looks to me like the peak number of new cases was 78,000 on July 25 and it's been all downhill since then.

Comments

[quadong]

I generally agree with you that numbers are better than adjectives. However, I think there's a good reason not to report that we're past the peak now. It's because that was the second peak, which was twice as high as the first one. A significant factor in getting the second peak was clearly that people responded to the first peak with "all clear now! back to business!".

It's not the second derivative of the number of cases that matters as much as the *number* of cases. That's still very high compared to almost any time since we started.

[dreamshark]

Good point about it being a second peak. But the first decline came during actual efforts in most states to stem the tide with social distancing and business restrictions. The remarkable thing about this second peak is that it is occurring as most states are abandoning those efforts, and states like Florida and Georgia are seemingly stoking the fires deliberately. I think this one is real.

What do you mean by "number of cases?" Total number of cases confirmed since the pandemic started? Total number per 100K? Or total number of new cases reported regardless of population? (a particularly useless number, IMHO, but one that the media is very fond of).

[quadong]

I mean number of new cases per week. Whether it's per 100k doesn't matter as long as we're talking about a fixed population, like the whole country, or Minnesota, and comparing apples to apples. Either way, you see the two-peak structure, and either way, the current rate of people getting infected is still very high, even if it was a little higher two weeks ago.

[dreamshark]

Well, time will tell. Minnesota has followed the same 2-peak pattern, and I was relieved to see that we have apparently plateaued on the 2nd peak rather than leaping into the stratosphere. I believe that what we are seeing in Minnesota is the infection rate peaking and starting a decline in the urban areas while the first wave finally starts ramping up outstate.

That may actually be what is starting to happen nationwide, although the national numbers are more chaotic because the virus hit different areas of the country at widely different times.

[jbru]

I've been watching the numbers and have been cautiously hopeful for a couple of weeks. The trick will be to see if we can keep things on a downward slope and then plateau at a manageable number of cases while a vaccine is developed. The push to open schools in some areas is worrisome for that.

[dreamshark]

That seems like a reasonable goal, or at least hope. I think that's what states like Minnesota are trying to do. Florida and Georgia and Arizona and a surprising number of other states seem to have a different objective in mind. And of course there is no nationwide goal. But we can still hope.

[lydamorehouse]

I suspect the New York Times (which I also read, I love that daily graph) is being cautious about declaring anything over too soon. After all, schools are starting back and Sturgis just happened, so I suspect they're waiting to declare this more than a dip until we see what happens after those two major factors.

[dreamshark]

Well, of course, because "past the peak" emphatically does not mean "over."
But I believe that reliable news sources should report the facts, not deliberately gloss over the facts because they don't trust their readers.

[guppiecat]

It's worth noting that the numbers change drastically as soon as the numbers stopped being reported to the CDC and went to DHS instead.

I do not trust the new numbers because they seem to reflect a political reality and not any epidemiology pattern I've seen anywhere.

[maruad]

This is exactly what I have been thinking.