Can we just stop and appreciate the state of the vaccine?

[dreamshark]

Yes, the pandemic saga has taken a grim turn this month, but can we just take a moment to give a big HOORAY for Science here?  It's less than a year since the outbreak began, and in this country alone we have not one but two highly effective vaccines on the threshold of release! Worldwide there are dozens under development and several that have already been deployed (albeit with varying degrees of safety protocols).

This is not like the dreary old flu vaccine which is just the same old thing each year tweaked to work (minimally well) against the new strains. There are multiple types of vaccine under development, some of them (like the two on the verge of release in the US right now) using brand new technologies. And it's not just the same old Big Pharma controlling the development and supply. Sure, Pfizer is big, but Moderna is a "biotech upstart" marketing its first vaccine. 

And vaccines aside, virologists and immunologists and epidemiologists around the world have probably learned more about how viruses work and how diseases spread in the past year than in the previous 30. This is exciting! 

Comments

[quadong]

Stopped and appreciated. I didn't think they were going to manage that. Now, let's try for some improvements in long-term planning, infrastructure, and public health ahead of the next pandemic.

[davidwilford]

I'd settle for less lunacy. My neighbor is on the St. Croix County Board of Commissioners and last month forwarded me a link to an audio recording from a meeting of the public health committee where seemingly every nut in the county came to denounce the dire threat to their freedom that any public health restrictions would pose. Yet they still drive the speed limit... I think. It's nice to think of sensible public heath measures, yet when confronted with such resistance to reality I wonder how much good it would do.

[quadong]

They drive the speed limit? I have seen very few people who do that. Mostly people seem to think it's a game to drive as fast as possible without being caught, and as far as I can tell believe traffic laws are just there to oppress them, drawing no connection to safety. Seems very similar how the same people approach the pandemic.

[pameladean]

I'm really thrilled by the mRNA one, plus the reports that it might be around 90% effective.

I'm not getting near anything managed by the Trump administration, though. I wouldn't be first in line anyway, so this determination likely won't make any difference.

P.

[dreamshark]

The Moderna one is mRNA also, but different enough to be an improvement. It seems to be even more efficacious (95%) and easier to distribute; the vaccine has a longer shelf life and can be stored in an ordinary freezer.

Is that part of the public's stated reluctance to take the vaccine - distrust of the distribution mechanism? The usual failure mode for the Trump administration is just not to get it done, which would mean that the vaccine simply wouldn't be there not that there would be something wrong with it.

[pameladean]

Oh, not having to be stored at a science-fictionally low temperature is definitely a plus, as is more effectiveness.

I don't know what the public reluctance is caused by; there is almost certainly a strong admixture of anti-vaxxer nonsense in there, but I don't really know much about it.

It looks like the two manufacturers are trying very hard to demonstrate that they have done everything right, and the FDA has made reassuring noises about not selling out to the Republicans. But the problem with Trump is that he just has to insert himself into everything and wreck it. He didn't just fail to provide PPE when it could really have made a difference. He outbid states for it and squirreled it away for his favorites; and when some states managed to buy some anyway, he sent federal agents to steal it. Unless by then he's collapsed like a wet lump of spaghetti, which is possible, he'll try to mess things up somehow. I don't want anything to do with his administration. It's poisonous.

P.

[chasophonic]

HOORAY for Science!

[maruad]

This is incredibly exciting. I suspect we will be hearing of other vaccines over the next few months.

My dream would be there would be enough viable vaccine distributed in time for the 2021 Winnipeg Folk Festival but I suspect that is asking a bit much.

[dreamshark]

Entirely possible, IMHO. Remember, public health experts are professional Debbie Downers - they ALWAYS predict the worst case scenario. Up until about 10 days ago, every official prediction regarding vaccines was predicated on the assumption that any vaccine would be at best 75% effective, probably much less so. Well, surprise! The first 2 out of the gate seem to be 95% effective! That changes all the calculations.

Then there's the frequently repeated assertion that 70% of the population has to be vaccinated to produce herd immunity. That's just plain not true. 70% of the population has to BE IMMUNE. That includes not just people who have been vaccinated but people who have had the disease (plus an unknown number of people who are naturally immune). I heard an expert on the subject say just yesterday that probably 15% of the US population has now been infected and it will probably be twice that by the time the vaccine is in general distribution. By my count that is 30% of the population that won't need to be vaccinated, assuming they can be identified.