When it turns, it turns so fast!

[dreamshark]

About 3 weeks ago the Poop Patrol in Minnesota reported that the traces of coronavirus in Minnesota wastewater were dropping precipitately, but you couldn't see the peak on the COVID arrival graph until Jan 25 (peaking out at 16,578 new cases). This is reportedly because the staff who enter the data for Minnesota Dept of Health were either overwhelmed or out sick, and it took them a while to catch up. Jan 25 looks like they pulled an all-nighter and got the data stream back on track. Good work, guys! 

Anyway, it's been falling like a stone ever since. I'm still finding articles online from as recently as a week ago listing Minnesota as one of the states where the rate is still increasing, but a week ago is like a year ago these days. We're plummeting downwards, even with some outstate areas trailing the metro and holding the average back a little. Now the question is... will it go back to where it was before the Delta wave hit in late summer, or will Delta somehow resurface and continue its course? I like to believe that Omicron wiped out what was left of Delta, which might take us back to ground zero (which is not actually zero, of course, but 89 sure looks like zero compared to 16,000). 

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Has anybody gotten those free COVID tests that we all ordered from the government on Jan 18? We haven't. Haven't needed them, though, because we haven't gone anywhere except grocery shopping since Christmas. I haven't had so much as a cold since November 2019, when I last passed unmasked through an airport. 

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So how do you decide when it's safe to take a few more risks? For me, that would be visiting an indoor restaurant or gym, both things I would like very much to do. For Richard that would be hosting a game party. Since we are planning a trip to Oregon in mid-March, I guess we'll keep a low profile until then. We have a vacation house rented in Depoe Bay for a couple of days of whale-watching, and I don't want to have to cancel that. Barring another big COVID surprise, we'll probably start opening up after that. 

Comments

[bibliofile]

We haven't received our free Covid tests yet. I haven't heard of anyone who has.

I just got boosted and am looking for the most comfy medical-grade masks. In a couple weeks I'll be much more open to more things. Probably not eat-in restaurants yet. Don't we all have internal prioritized lists of risk attributed to various activities we'd like to do?

[dreamshark]

My daughter brought me a 10-pack of Chinese-made N95 masks at Christmas time. I'm finding them surprisingly comfortable. N95 masks have around-the-head elastics, which is my preference for comfort and which also, IMHO, generally produce a better fit than ear loops. But K95's can be purchased with ear loops if that's what works for you. If they fit tightly on your face they both work equally well to filter 95% of viral particles.

Just don't mistake those horrible little blue surgical masks for good masks, even the ones that are described as "medical grade." They are made of a good filtering material, but are only intended to stop surgeons from sneezing into their patients' body cavities, not to filter incoming or outgoing aerosols. On most people they gap widely at the sides, and air will follow the path of least resistance.

[redbird]

We got our free covid tests late last week.

[davidwilford]

We got our free COVID tests a week ago and picked up some N95 masks at our local War-Mart last week as well. Not planning on returning to our local rec center ever though, because I do think the amount of virus you are initially exposed to is a factor in how bad a case you get, and someone who is exercising and expelling lots of viral particles next to me is something I'd rather not risk. At least right now I can go outside and x-c ski, which is my favorite workout.

[dreamshark]

That's the perfect COVID-safe winter exercise. I envy you. I have acquired some kind of slow-healing injury in the hip/groin area that makes skiing impossible, and walking a little iffy. Oddly enough, biking does not aggravate it, but winter biking is not my thing. I look forward to the spring when I can get back on my bike.

[davidwilford]

Just before the COVID pandemic Erin and I did get to try and ride fat tire winter bikes at Willow River State Park and they were fun. So much fun that the park made a whole trail system for them and it's gotten popular now. Just today I was x-c skiing and happened to come to a fat tire bike crossing where there was a bicycle approaching, and he yielded to me so I crossed the intersection first. So maybe you could consider bicycling in the winter too?

[sraun]

I got an e-mail claiming to be from the USPS giving me a tracking number. Digging some more, it turns out it was for my COVID tests - they're supposed to be arriving by Thursday.

Boy was I surprised when something that looked like spam/fishing/malware actually turned out to be something I was waiting for!

[quadong]

My parents say they've gotten their free covid tests, but I haven't. We both ordered them the day before the official launch.

As far as personal risk goes, I'm ready to take more risks now. I'm extremely ready. I'll go to a restaurant. As far as duty to society goes (for planning indoor events), I'm trying to figure out when hospitals are no longer under such extreme pressure. The hospitalization numbers are starting to go down, but they are still very high. But I don't know what a good threshold is.

[dreamshark]

Yeah, I'm mostly waiting for the hospitals to recover some capacity. Because of the way hospitals report "COVID hospitalizations" I no longer consider that number to be meaningful. Number of available hospital beds/ICU beds in the local health system is probably the number to watch, regardless of exactly who is occupying the beds and why.

Different states have different levels of normal where hospital capacity is concerned. I have seen references to what "normal" used to look like in Minnesota, but I don't remember exactly what that was. When percent occupied got above 90% there were expressions of alarm.

[quadong]

ICU availability in my IL region has recently risen above 20%, which is the line that the IL Department of Health set. It's still below 20% in all the adjacent regions, including the city of Chicago. The number of COVID patients, whatever that means, has also been plummeting for some time. So over there things look pretty good.

But I'm sitting in St Paul right now, and I don't know where to get similar metrics for Minnesota. (Although I think someone may have linked me to somewhere useful lately and I've forgotten where it is?)

I'd also kinda like to hear some quotes from hospital workers saying "hey yeah, it's sucking less" so I know these numbers are meaningful. I don't know if hospitals are gaming the "available ICU bed" number. A physical bed doesn't help if there's no one to treat you while you're in it.

[dreamshark]

Check this out: a dashboard of dashboards

https://www.minnpost.com/health/2022/02/dashboard-professionals-a-guide-to-all-of-the-state-of-minnesotas-public-covid-19-data-that-we-know-about/

[quadong]

Thanks. Maybe that's the second time you've pointed me there. I've bookmarked it, which probably won't help.

What I see there is that, first of all, it's really clear from the hospitalization graphs that we always run our hospitals very close to capacity so that a small additional load from COVID patients is all that's needed to put them into crisis. I mean, no surprise there. We've been hearing about this sort of "efficiency" for almost as long as the pandemic has been going. I dearly hope we do something about that, and I don't think we're going to.

Ok, I like "staffed adult ICU bed" as a metric. That makes it clear it's not just the bed. (Although I still worry that the hospitals may be gaming what "staffed" means. Do they know they have the nurses, or are they on-call and will turn out to be sick when needed? Or whatever.)

https://mn.gov/covid19/data/response-prep/response-capacity.jsp

I think that when the Cities' region for ICU and non-ICU beds are no longer red, and cases are not going up, we should resume in-person indoor events.

So how do you decide when it's safe to take a few more risks?

[minnehaha]

I got a booster, got exposed, got very mildly sick, recovered, and began to do things in a more normal way.

K.